by Kirstin McPolin
The Quick Facts: The science of global warming has been debated for decades. While there are still some scientists, businesses and politicians that believe global warming is not driven by human influences, but is instead simply due to natural climate variability, the vast majority of scientists agree that global warming is a reality fueled by human activities. The IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report-the work of more than 2,500 scientists from 130 countries and research conducted over six years -finds that scientists are “virtually certain” (99% sure) that human use of fossil fuels is contributing to global warming. Evidence has been building that the Earth is getting hotter with NASA reporting that the hottest years were (in order with hottest first): 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004. The IPCC predicts an average world temperature increase of 2.7 to 8.1 degrees by 2100; more heat waves; a potential sea level rise of up to 20 inches by 2100; an average 6 inches or less annual rainfall for the U.S.’s South West, and an annual average 6 inches more rainfall for the U.S.’s North East; and 50 more (than average) days that never fall below 32 degrees for the U.S.’s Pacific North West.
The science of global warming and climate change has been debated for decades. A greater awareness of global warming of late has surfaced due to increased media attention and recent occurrences of intense hurricanes, flooding, tsunamis, droughts, shrinking ice caps and rising sea levels. As an environmental attorney, mother of two and an inhabitant of the planet Earth, I am glad that people are finally paying attention to the issue. With the heightened awareness of this issue, politicians will likely be sharpening their pencils to take it on. Since political action is often a long and drawn out process, it is important for the everyday person to better understand the problem and what needs to be done individually and as a global community to improve the situation.
The Global Warming Problem
According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), global warming is an average increase in the Earth’s temperature which in turn causes changes in climate. Global warming is caused by the greenhouse effect, a natural process in which greenhouse gases-including water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halogenated fluorocarbons, ozone, perfluorinated carbons and hydrofluorocarbons-allow incoming solar radiation to pass through the Earth’s atmosphere, but prevent heat generated from the Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere from escaping.
At its natural levels, the greenhouse effect is necessary to sustain life on Earth, keeping the Earth’s temperature about 60 degrees Fahrenheit warmer that it would otherwise be. However, with the introduction of power-driven machines during the Industrial Revolution, population growth, the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, humans are now releasing many gases, including greenhouse gases, into the atmosphere. The abundant emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide is of particular concern, as it is released when fossil fuels, like oil and gas, are burned to power our cars, produce and package products and supply electricity to our homes.
This human-driven excess emission of greenhouse gases may be increasingly heating the Earth and ultimately altering the Earth’s climate. A warming climate change means long-term changes in weather patterns, including warmer temperatures and increases in annual precipitation.
The Scientific View of Global Warming
While there are still some scientists, businesses and politicians that believe global warming is not driven by human influences, but is instead simply due to natural climate variability, the vast majority of scientists agree that global warming is a reality fueled by human activities. The definitive word on global warming comes from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations (UN) Environment Program. It is open to all members of the UN and WMO. The role of the IPCC is to use peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature to assess in a comprehensive, objective and open manner the state of knowledge on climate change at regular intervals.
Since 1990, the IPCC has performed four climate assessments. In its 2001 First Assessment Report, the IPCC predicted average global temperatures would rise 2.5 to 10.4 degrees by the end of this century. For comparison, from 1901 to 2005 the rise in global temperatures was just 1.2 degrees. It appears that thus far IPCC scientists have been accurate in estimating temperature changes, as two separate 2005 Science magazine studies confirmed the Earth’s atmosphere is warming from human-caused increases in carbon dioxide at rates predicted by the IPCC.
At the time of the 2001 report, scientists concluded that human use of fossil fuels was likely (66% sure) a contributing factor to global warming. Today, the IPCC’s 2007 Fourth Assessment Report-the work of more than 2,500 scientists from 130 countries and research conducted over six years -finds that scientists are “virtually certain” (99% sure) that human use of fossil fuels is contributing to global warming. Although only one of three stages of the IPCC’s 2007 Report has yet been published, there have been prepublication reports in the media of the IPCC’s conclusions for the United States’ climate, some of which are as follows:
- Temperature – a predicted average global temperature increase of 2.7 to 8.1 degrees by the year 2100 (with predictions that in the U.S. temperatures will rise most in the Upper Midwest and Mountain West regions)
- Heat waves – predictions of approximately three more (than usual) heat waves that last three days or more in the typical year
- Precipitation – a predicted annual 6 inches less than average rainfall for the U.S.’s South West, and an annual 6 inches more than average for the U.S.’s North East
- Frost Days – predictions that the U.S.’s Pacific North West will see at least 50 more (than average) days per year that never fall below 32 degrees
- Sea Level – predictions that sea levels may rise up to 20 inches by the year 2100, posing danger to at least half of the U.S. population which lives 50 miles from the coastline
In the United States, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (an independent body of the federal government) was asked by Congress to study climate change. In June 2006, a report was released that concluded that the Northern Hemisphere is the hottest it has been in 2,000 years and human activities are responsible for recent global warming. According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the warmest years on record for average annual temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were (with hottest listed first): 2005, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004.
As with temperature increases, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels have also increased. Carbon dioxide emissions have more than tripled since the 1950s and according to the scientists at Princeton University’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative (”CMI”), if we continue at our current level of emissions the amount of carbon dioxide will double from their current level by 2054.
The Political View of Global Warming
Al Gore weighed in on global warming with his documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth,” and other politicians are now talking about global warming. For the first time in one of his State of the Union Addresses, President George W. Bush took on the issue of global warming in his January 2007 address. In that address, President Bush called for developing renewable, alternative fuels and decreasing our dependence on oil. Members of Congress have also stated that they will be taking on the issue of global warming. After winning a majority in the House and Senate in last November’s election, Democrats plan to introduce climate change bills and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is creating a special committee on climate change.
In addition to this political chatter, more than 12 states are now taking steps to reduce global warming, among which is California where Governor Schwarzenegger ordered the world’s first low-carbon limits on passenger-car fuels in January. California’s new standard is expected to reduce the carbon content of transportation fuels by at least 10% by 2020. Further, according to the U.S. Conference of Mayors, more than 300 mayors, representing all 50 states and 50 million people, have signed pledges since 2005 to cut greenhouse gas emissions in their communities.
The Solutions
So we know the science and we know there’s political rant on the
issue, but can we really do anything on an individual basis? Yes; there
are many things you can do in everyday life that can reduce the amount of
carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and improve the situation of
global warming. To get started, visit the websites listed below, which provide
information on how to reduce your impact on global warming, and read Real
Mama, Inc.’s Spring 2007 Issue article, “Global
Warming: Solutions for the Reasonable Family.”
Information used in this article was found at the following sources, which you can visit if you want to find out more about this topic:
http://epa.gov/climatechange/kids/index.html
(EPA website about climate change designed for kids)
http://www.ipcc.ch/ (Recognizing the problem
of potential global climate change, the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to regularly assess
and report on the status of global climate change. It is open to all members
of the UN and WMO)
http://www.coopamerica.org/programs/climate/facts/
(Co-op America is a not-for-profit membership organization founded in 1982
to harness economic power – the strength of consumers, investors, businesses
and the marketplace – to create a socially just and environmentally sustainable
society)
http://www.fightglobalwarming.com/
(Environmental Defense is a leading national nonprofit organization representing
more than 500,000 members that links science, economics, law and innovative
private-sector partnerships to create breakthrough solutions to the most
serious environmental problems)
http://www.heartland.org/pdf/19497.pdf
(2006 testimony by the President of the National Academy of Sciences on
their Report “Climate Change: Evidence and Future Projections)
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/2005_warmest.html
(NASA, a federal agency whose mission is to pioneer the future in space
exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research, press release
entitled, “2005 Warmest Year in Over a Century”)
http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/mission/index.html
(Princeton University’s Carbon Mitigation Initiative is a joint effort with
Princeton University Environmental Institute, BP and Ford to find a solution
to the greenhouse gas problem)
Tags: climate change, fossil fuels, global warming, IPCC's 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, temperature increase
